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2017 First Half Prediction: Stability But Minimal Growth
Finally… the U.S. industrial economy has some good news. Goods demand has stabilized and inventory drawdowns are over. As the chart of inventory shows, starting in the second half of 2015, companies...
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Check In On Semiconductors for 2017 Growth
If you want a grasp on how the global economy is doing, look at semiconductors. Semiconductor companies are proxies for all factory production. These companies crank out billions of parts each year...
View ArticleMarket Needs to Consolidate for a While
Market Needs to Consolidate for a While The market has overstretched itself since the Election – up 10% in just over two months. Oil and the December interest rate hikes are what helped fuel the rally....
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Are We About To See Stagflation?
I’ve been raising two major concerns to my readers recently: Consumer wages are rising slower than inflation; Business incomes aren’t growing much and they continue to suffer from excess supply...
View ArticleAvoid This Stock Ahead Of Its Earnings Announcement
One Stock I’m Bearish On Right Now Major aluminum producer Alcoa (AA) split off Arconic (ARNC) this past October. The idea behind the split was that Alcoa had vertically integrated too much: they were...
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Vice Index: January 2017
Vice Index: January 2017 Expect to see steady consumer spending. The year-over-year (yr/yr) growth is accelerating thanks to rising consumer sentiment and favorable comps. Regular Moneyball readers...
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Looking Inside The Market’s Interpretation of Inflation vs. Reflation
We’ve seen a lot of headlines regarding the stock market surging over the past few months (up 11% since the election). That’s not the only thing jumping: oil prices are up 15% the last few months (and...
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Demand for Semiconductors: Industrial Activity Less Active Than Perceived
Like the reflation which we discussed last week (specifically oil reflation), semiconductor reflation is all about inventory and supply management. The first half (1H) of 2016 was characterized by...
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Vice Index: Retail Spending Pace Is Beginning To Peak
Retail Spending Pace is Peaking Vice Index points to steady consumer spending… But it is going to slow in the next few months. The nominal spending level continues to expand (more people are entering...
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What Google Searches Are Telling Us About Consumer Sentiment
What Google Searches Are Telling Us About Consumer Sentiment Sentiment is strong. Household spending should remain strong through the first half (1H) of 2017, thanks to positive feelings about job...
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The Importance of Revenues and Revenue Growth
The Importance of Revenues and Revenue Growth First quarter earnings are in the book. The second quarter has officially started. I’m spending the next few weeks doing a deep-dive into what to expect...
View ArticleNewest Macro Data Is W-E-A-K!
Last week two of my favorite data points came out: Payrolls & Trade. Payrolls were a huge miss. Expectations were for 180,000+, but came in almost 50% lower (at 98,000). Automatic Data Processing...
View ArticleEarnings Season Underway… Here’s How To Profit
Earnings season is underway… and I still see earnings surprises coming. I scope out a company’s hiring and operational spending to get a read on these companies. Having worked in the corporate world, I...
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China’s Lehman Moment Is Coming
Before I dig in to the coming Lehman moment out of China, you should understand how China has impacted the world. First, let’s start with debt. Debt sits at the heart of China’s miracle growth. China...
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How Far Along We Are In The Current Business Cycle
If we’re talking about length of business cycles, you could say we’re in the midst of a near 30-year long one right now. Except for the interruptions of the Dotcom bust and the credit madness of...
View ArticleHere’s The Real Reason Why The Market Is Going Up…
Whales can only hide in deep waters… That’s why the stock market is going up. What does that mean? Well… let’s say you run the Saudi Arabian central bank. Or a major hedge fund with tens of billions in...
View ArticleGauging The Economic Impact Of Uber
Uber has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over these past couple months. I’m sure you’ve seen or heard the headlines. From sexual harassment, to discrimination, to “Greyball” – software...
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Vice Index Shows U.S. Slowdown Ahead
Slower Spending Growth In Q3 When Vice spending momentum began to slow in February, I blamed near-term noise. I thought it might be tied to February’s tax refund deferral. And when it slowed again in...
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Yellen Might Want To Check This Industry Before Raising Rates
Industrial Production & Export Boom Slowing The economic boom has been underway for several quarters. Industrial production and exports are up from Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. These companies...
View ArticleWatch Out Below For Coca-Cola (KO)
Watch Out Below For Coca-Cola Coca-Cola (KO) has been under pressure for a few years. KO is up roughly 33% since 2012. The S&P 500 is up roughly 88% over the same time frame. They have sought to...
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