Clik here to view.
America’s Economic Strength in Four Labor Charts
Initial Jobless Claims as a Leading Indicator When it comes to Initial Jobless Claims, labor is a leading – not a lagging – indicator. All business investment decisions, from capital to labor, are...
View ArticleClik here to view.
US Jobless Claims Point to Continued Economic Growth
Jobless claims are a superior indicator for the economy not only because they lead economic growth and correlate so closely with it, but they also get reported much earlier. The GDP/Initial Jobless...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Forget Gold, Trade Iran
The Gold Trade Died Long Ago Back in September, when gold was $1,200+, Southbay Research explained why it would only fall further. From that report: Gold price inflation factors continue to unwind. I’m...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Company-Specific Hiring Data Says It All
Every month, SouthBay Research measures hiring at the individual company level for most of the Russell 1000. To get a sector view of hiring, we paralleled Blackrock’s iShares ETFs. Next, each company’s...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Vice Index Update: Vicing Holds Steady
Vice spending continues to grow, although it looks headed for a slightly slower trajectory. The August dip came from last year’s particularly strong comp (strong vicing in August last year). September...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Vice Index Update: Holiday Spending Boost Won’t Last
October retail sales have been released and, as expected, were revised to show a drop. The Good News: 2015 Holiday Spending Looks Great Vice spending is consistent with a retail sales (ex-autos and...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Adding Context to the Global Economic Slowdown
In December 2013, in a sign of robust global trade driving demand for container ships, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) peaked at 2,330. By July 2014, rates had collapsed to 730. Today, rates have fallen to...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Economy Slows… Just as the Fed Talks About Raising Rates
The Economy Slows… Just as the Fed Talks About Raising Rates What makes me think the economy is slowing? Because that’s what corporate America is saying. We know that there’s an industrial recession...
View ArticleGet Ready for More Market Turmoil
If you subscribe to our paid service, then you know that on Tuesday last week I called the S&P 500 dropping swiftly to 2100. Here’s what I said: I think the S&P is going about to test 2,100...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Why Much of Asia is Thankful for the Upcoming iPhone Release
Why Much of Asia is Thankful for the Upcoming iPhone Release There is a lot of pent-up demand for Apple’s (NYSE: AAPL) new Iphone 7 that just released. It’s the first new model in over two years (last...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Vice Index Shows The Start of a Downtrend
“I think the consumer generally is okay. There’s things that are working in his favor. whether it’s interest rates, fuel prices, unemployment rate…I think there’s still probably little bit of hesitancy...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Investing in the Green Economy
Investing in the Green Economy The story about I’m about to tell is entirely true. Two years ago I was doing a show at the Wall Street Journal and so was Cheech & Chong’s Tommy Chong. Well known...
View ArticleClik here to view.
A Sign the Economy is Tilting Down: Look at Cost-Cutting
A Sign the Economy is Tilting Down: Look at Cost-Cutting Want to know how companies achieve strong earnings growth despite a revenue collapse? The answer: cost-cutting. (The terms vary on earnings...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Global Economy is Collapsing
The Global Economy is Collapsing The global economy has been collapsing for the last 2 years. Demand for “stuff” has shrunk 10% since 2014, down to levels not seen since the recession. Just look at...
View ArticleClik here to view.
October Vice Index Update:: Slower Retail Spending Growth Takes Hold
“Our customers tell us they are less confident about the economy now than they were three months ago, and they expect the economy to get worse in the next three months.” Kroger’s CEO Rodney McMullen...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The Private Sector is Pulling Back
To understand how most of America is doing, you need to start with consumer spending. Consumption makes up about 70% of U.S. GDP. And imports play a big role in a lot of what we consume, whether as...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Business Spending Drops: Evidence Now Undeniable
The mounting evidence about the economy and the consumer is now undeniable. For example, we’ve covered the drop in business dining and traffic in premium steakhouses Ruth’s Chris and Del Frisco. The...
View ArticleWhy The Polls Got It Wrong: Deliberate Versus Accidental Survey Bias
To understand “deliberate bias” among census and surveys, we can look all the way back to the Jewish Bible. The Book of Numbers in the Jewish Bible is named as such because it begins with a partial...
View ArticleThe Aftermath of the U.S. Election And Its Implications Moving Forward
The nomination of Donald Trump triggered a major see-saw reaction in the stock market. The S&P 500 immediately capsized 4% before recovering and surging 3%. A similar swing in the market was...
View ArticleClik here to view.
What Comes After the Trump Rally?
The market has ripped 5% higher in just the few weeks after Trump’s nomination. But the rally isn’t coming from the largest companies that are weighted more heavily in the S&P 500. In fact, these...
View Article