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Vice Index Nails Retail Forecast AGAIN
Heads Up: Retail Spending Momentum Turns Negative (Note: The Vice Index is lagged: recent vice spending pullbacks are reflected in the chart above starting June.) Consumer Spending Slowing Down...
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It’s Time To Go Long the U.S. Dollar
Global Trade Momentum Slows in Second Half The global growth story of 2017 has always been about the low base – first half (H1) growth of 2016 slow while the second half (H2) was strong. However,...
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Vice Index – Consumer Spending & Confidence Rolling Over
Vice Index Data: Downshifting One of the important aspects of the U.S. economy is that recent business cycles have been longer. But also shallower. I believe that the internet is playing a big role in...
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Are We At An Inflection Point In The Economy? Yes!
The End Of Effective Stimulus (I’m looking at the macro fundamentals and I think an inflection is coming up in a few months…and that means opportunity.) At the highest level, global growth is coming...
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The One Chart You Need To Look At As The Markets Hit New Highs
The One Chart You Must Follow Don’t read too much into current stock market moves…until you use one simple measurement to gauge stock market valuations. But first, remember that we just finished the...
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What The Moneyball Vice Index REALLY Says About Retail Forecast!
Total Retail Spend Grows On Hurricane-Linked Demand First, I want to point out that the two hurricanes that have devastated Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico have been horrible. Hundreds of thousands, if...
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Ready. Set. Get Prepared For Inflation!
The Three Horsemen of Inflation Trucking inflation Cell phone inflation Wage inflation Trucking Inflation Is Just Getting Started U.S. cargo shipments contracted throughout 2015 and 2016. This was...
View ArticleWhy Your Portfolio Should Prepare For Seven More Years Of Trump
INVESTING IN THE TRUMP AGENDA I am going to make the case that you need to have a Trump Investing Plan. To begin, I will “assume” that Trump will be a 2-term president with enormous political strength....
View ArticleMake Sure You Avoid Healthcare Stocks
Make Sure You Avoid Healthcare Stocks Buffett: Healthcare Costs are an Angry Tapeworm in the Belly of the US Economy JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon announced a joint agreement to develop a...
View ArticleThe Absolute Best Forecast Of Where Bitcoin Is Headed
Fibonacci, the Golden Ratios, and Stock Trading Stock prices ebb-and-flow according to various factors, not all of which are financial. There’s the human factors – success attracts investors, losers...
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Here’s What To Expect After The Market Selloff
So…What’s Next? A sell-off happens for good reasons. The equity market is adjusting to fundamental changes in liquidity. Previous conditions: Cheap money has been floating around everywhere with no...
View ArticleBusiness Is Booming For This Industry
Marijuana Goes Mainstream In October 2015, Oregon legalized the sale of recreational marijuana. The following month I flew to Portland to gauge the market. I visited 5 stores and monitored foot traffic...
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Markets Happy As It Climbs “The Wall Of Worry”
Update: March 2018 The market is very, very happy. The fiscal stimulus and lack of major “inflation scare” is helping keep markets steady, yet trending higher on a positive note. So here’s the wall of...
View ArticleNew Q2 2018 Moneyball Trading Ideas
New Investment Ideas I don’t usually throw out standalone investment ideas, but these are some I am considering. Here’s my thesis. Short the Turkish Lira: Turkey has over extended itself. The economy...
View ArticleA No-Brainer Trade: Free Dating Sites Closed
Free dating sites close down. Only paid sites remain. You might not know this, but Congress just wiped out the casual dating scene in mid-March when they recently signed into law the Fight Online Sex...
View ArticleThe Markets Finally Start To Look At Valuations
We are firmly in earnings season and the market keeps getting disappointed. Don’t look at earnings because they are heavily pumped up by the Trump tax change. And by a weak dollar. What you should...
View ArticleThe Key Risk In The Market I’m Looking At Right Now
The knock-on effects of higher interests is the key risk I’m following these days. You may have seen headlines about the risk of rising interest rates. The 10-Year Treasury yield now sits above the 3%...
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Why China’s Soft-Landing Isn’t Looking So Good
Over the past few months, I have been pointing to slower growth coming out of Asia (i.e. China) and the E.U. (i.e. Germany). We can track the slowdown by looking at semiconductors and the overall...
View ArticleIs Trump Good Or Bad For This Market?
The market has been on a tear since Trump moved into the oval office. But is he good or bad for the market? His style is combative and divisive. This brings on volatility. The opposite of what...
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Gambling Shows Consumers Are Spending. Cannabis Trumps Alcohol.
(The chart above averages the rates of gambling growth for Detroit, Maryland, Connecticut, Atlantic City, & Pennsylvania.) Where We Are In The State Of Gambling. Gamblers are back. Money is...
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